The groupthink regarding the demise of theatrical moviegoing reveals a shortsightedness of recent history, and lack of understanding of the cinematic art form. People see all types of movies in a theater. Neither Hollywood, nor pop culture, is defined by the blockbuster. Many enduring franchises such as “Star Wars” and “The Fast and the Furious” were once singular, original, and risky ideas. More importantly they were movies: a complete two hour-long story with a beginning, middle and end.
The general consensus believes that Hollywood is panicking because all major movies are following the model of Disney+ and HBO Max by releasing straight to streaming. Americans, however, go to the movies to see more than just effects-driven epics. When theaters reopen in the post-pandemic world, seats will be filled despite the choice to stay home and watch the same blockbusters. Mass-marketed tentpoles are not exclusively what stand the test of time, nor are they true success stories. Many of the films that cross over into permanent cultural literacy – the ones that permeate our consciousness and reach a societal shorthand – are often independent, low-budget, and targeted to an adult demographic.
Over the years many genres have dominated the box office. In the late-90s and early-2000s I worked at USA Films and New Line Cinema on 100 independent film's marketing and advertising campaigns. Although I never landed a #1 Box Office Hit, several are now considered classic and influential. This includes Steven Soderbergh's "Traffic" which won four Oscars and grossed over $200 million worldwide, and Spike Jonze's "Being John Malkovich" which became an inventive, cultural touchstone. I also had the privilege to promote the American release of Wong Kar-Wai's "In the Mood for Love" - a seminal work taught in film schools and widely regarded as one of the best films of the 21st Century.
At the same time, multiple non-franchise pictures were connecting with wide audiences. In 1998, two of the highest grossing films were “Good Will Hunting” and “Saving Private Ryan.” In the early 2000s such independent low-budget films as “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” and “Slumdog Millionaire” were global hits. Even Mel Gibson’s “Passion of the Christ” was an unconventional success. In 2010 both “The King’s Speech” and “Black Swan” made over $100 million domestically and $300 million worldwide. Breaking ground for African-American artists in 2017, Jordan Peele's "Get Out" was a beacon for new voices. With its small budget and direct critique of racism, "Get Out" overcame conventional wisdom as an international sensation. In 2019, two non-franchise films “Parasite” and “Knives Out” were huge, maintaining a popularity that will outlast many of that year’s sequels and remakes. These and other examples demonstrate the desire to attend a variety of movies in the theater. This is not going away.
Americans will not simply forget or abandon a pastime they have loved for over a hundred years. And the reason for that passion runs deeper than the quality of content or social habits. Nothing will replace the need to hear a story entirely in one sitting – from beginning, middle and end. This unity of time and space was outlined by Aristotle and practiced across cultures for centuries. It is a fundamental aspect of human nature.
Movies follow this format. The art is the ability to tell a concise story in approximately two hours. The three act structure has endured because it is the central foundation of all stories. Get the hero up a tree, throw rocks, bring the hero home. Movies are a global phenomenon because they embrace this universal structure. It is not going away.
Yes, streaming may give rise to longer narratives that can be told over many hours and seasons. This can produce more shows that will co-exist with movies, not replace. As new diverse voices are breaking-through into historically underrepresented roles, unique stories are emerging on film. Inclusive stories from personal perspectives will bring a broader audience to the cinema. It is an exciting opportunity.
The logic that people sign up for a new streaming service in order to see a new movie is therefore the same logic that keeps them attending the multiplex. Exclusivity has its advantages. This is why mass audiences fought to see “Hamilton” live on stage, or lined up to buy the “Harry Potter” books.
The same will be true of movies. All types, big and small.
